
Randall Rothenberg Just Named Your Next Five Years and You're Going to Hate How Right He Is
The Disclosure, Because We Believe in Those Around Here
Look, I'll get the disclosure out of the way: Randall Rothenberg is one of the good ones. Ran the IAB when the IAB still meant something, wrote Where the Suckers Moon back when ad books were actually books, and to this day will still pick up the phone when I call, which is more than I can say for half the CMOs I've interviewed in the last decade.
The man has earned the right to drop a 5,000-word manifesto and have the rest of us read it with our shoes off.
So when Randall and John Frelinghuysen, his old "Making Measurement Make Sense" co-conspirator and a guy who has worn more c-suite hats than a coat rack at a Davos cocktail party, publish a paper telling the entire industry to put down the currency debate and pick up a new acronym, you do not roll your eyes. You sit up. You read it twice. You make coffee. You read it a third time.
And then you realize they're right, which is annoying, because it means you have work to do.
Meet MAMMA, Your New Least Favorite Acronym That You Will Be Using Constantly
The acronym, since we're going to be saying it for the next eighteen months whether we like it or not, is MAMMA. Marketing-Advertising-Media-Measurement-Analytics. Yes, it's trying very hard. Yes, the closing line of the paper is literally "Listen to MAMMA." Yes, somewhere in a Brooklyn co-working space a junior planner is already designing the LinkedIn carousel. I don't care. The acronym is the Trojan horse. The argument inside it is the thing.
The Argument, Stripped of Consultant Garnish
Here is the argument, stripped of consultant garnish: every conversation our industry has had about measurement for the last fifteen years has been the wrong conversation. Attention versus outcomes. GRPs versus impressions. Viewability versus verified. De-duplicated reach versus incremental lift. We have spent a generation arguing about what unit of measurement should be the new "currency" while the actual problem, the one that has been sitting in the corner of the room eating a sandwich and waiting for someone to notice it, is that measurement should not be a currency at all.
It should be a signal. One of thousands. Folded into an AI orchestration layer that handles the strategy, the creative, the planning, the buying, the optimization, and yes, the measurement, as one continuous loop instead of as separate departments who only speak to each other through Excel attachments and passive aggression.
If that sounds obvious when I write it that way, congratulations, you've been paying attention. It is obvious. It has been obvious. The reason nobody has said it out loud at this volume until now is that saying it out loud puts about forty thousand jobs and a couple hundred vendor logos on notice, and Randall is one of maybe six people in this industry with enough accumulated credibility to say it without getting laughed off the stage.
The Bloomberg Moment Marketing Never Had
The genius move in the paper, and this is where you start to understand why the man has been getting paid to think for forty years, is the analogy set.
Bloomberg Terminal collapsed finance. Climate Fieldview collapsed farming. Pro Tools collapsed music production. Each of those industries had a moment where someone walked in, looked at the fragmented stack of tools and data and workflows, and said "what if this was one thing." And then it became one thing, and the people who built the one thing became unspeakably rich, and the people who kept selling the fragments became case studies in MBA programs.
Marketing has not had its Bloomberg moment. The paper's central provocation is that it is having it right now, this year, in real time, while most of you are still arguing about whether CTV measurement should be log-level or panel-based.
The vendors Randall and John bless: Smartly, Adaly, Veylan, Mobian, plus the legacy players who might still pull off the pivot, Adobe, LiveRamp, Mediaocean, The Trade Desk, Horizon, HubSpot. The vendors they don't bless, mostly by polite omission: Nielsen (treated like a beloved grandparent who just discovered the iPad), the holding companies (treated like the cast of a reunion tour), Meta and Google (treated like weather systems you route around).
Where the Paper Is Soft, and Where It's Steel
Will every prediction in this paper land? No. Some of these startups will be acquired, some will fold, and at least one will have a founder scandal we can't see from here. The "definitive attribution" promise is hedged so carefully you can hear the lawyer in the next room. The walled garden problem gets one paragraph when it deserves an essay. We'll get to all of that in Part II, because Adotat does not exist to clap politely.
But the frame is right. The frame is so right that if you are a brand, an agency, a publisher, a measurement vendor, or any kind of adtech founder reading this with your morning coffee, you should be printing the eight-category, two-axis chart from this paper and taping it above your desk. Not because the chart is gospel. Because the chart is the conversation your board is going to be having in Q2, and you would like to walk in already knowing the vocabulary.
What's Coming in Parts II and III
Read the next two parts.
Part II is where we figure out what's true, what's hopeful, and what Randall is too polite to say out loud. Part III is the receipts, the numbers, the vendor list, the pull quotes, all the stuff you'll want when someone at a conference asks if you've seen "the Rothenberg paper" and you need to nod knowingly without sweating.
And Randall, if you're reading this, the coffee's on me next time. The acronym is still ridiculous. The argument is the best thing anyone has written about this industry all year.
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