Sign up here |
|
|---|

We Optimized for the Wrong Question
Sorry, Your Media Budget Is Being Day-Traded
Right now, your advertising budget is being chopped into a billion tiny pieces and auctioned off in milliseconds.
This is not a metaphor.
OpenRTB—the protocol that runs programmatic advertising—is literally designed to clear billions of auctions per day, with algorithms bidding on single impressions based on micro-signals and split-second probabilities.
It's high-frequency trading. For ads. And just like actual day trading, most people lose money while a very small number of very fast players extract all the edge.
We Optimized for the Wrong Question
OpenRTB asks: "What should I bid on this impression right now?"
The question you actually need answered: "How should I allocate my budget across channels and suppliers to maximize risk-adjusted return?"
One is execution. The other is strategy.
We've built a trillion-dollar industry optimizing execution while treating strategy like a spreadsheet problem.
As Benjamin Masse puts it: "OpenRTB is a protocol for day trading; AdCP is a protocol for investing."
Why "Programmatic Is for Quants"
Because that's where all the innovation went.
Bid shading algorithms
Pacing optimization
Frequency capping math
Lookalike modeling
Floor price arbitrage
PhDs squeezing fractional-cent edges out of individual ad calls.
Meanwhile, the decisions that actually determine outcomes—which channels, which partners, how much in each—are solved with:
Last year's budget plus 10%
Walled garden black boxes
Consultant decks
Vibes
The Real Problem: You're Stuck with 3-5 Platforms
Not because that's optimal. Because that's all your team can operationally handle.
Every new platform adds:
Contracts and legal review
Custom integration and API maintenance
Trafficking, QA, reporting dashboards
Reconciliation and discrepancy resolution
So even when the math says diversifying into a 6th or 10th or 20th supplier would improve your risk-adjusted return, the operations say "absolutely not."
You're day-trading a concentrated portfolio because diversification costs too much.
What If Media Buying Looked Like Portfolio Management Instead?
What if instead of bidding on impressions, you could express intents like:
"Allocate this budget across these channels and partners, under these constraints, optimizing for risk-adjusted return"
What if agents could handle all the integration overhead—contracts, trafficking, reporting, reconciliation—so the marginal cost of adding a new supplier dropped to nearly zero?
What if you could manage 20 suppliers instead of 5, and let actual portfolio math—correlations, diversification, rebalancing—drive allocation instead of "how many platforms can our team possibly juggle?"
That's what AdCP promises. A protocol for investing, not day-trading. A shift from impression-level optimization to portfolio-level strategy.
But Here's What Nobody's Saying Out Loud
This isn't just a technical upgrade. It's a power struggle disguised as infrastructure.
The questions that matter:
Why would walled gardens commoditize their moats?
Who actually controls the "open" standard?
Does this fix programmatic's 30-40% working media problem, or just automate dysfunction faster?
What happens when your "agent" misallocates $2 million overnight?
AdCP could unlock genuine portfolio diversification. Or it could become very efficient middleware for the same broken economics.
The difference comes down to governance, incentives, and whether the industry actually wants to fix what's broken—or just wants to make the current mess run on AI.
Which platforms are slow-walking adoption and why. Which fraud vectors the spec doesn't address. What the veterans who built OpenRTB are actually saying in private. And which agencies are quietly preparing for a world where humans manage 20 suppliers instead of 5.
The shift from day-trading to portfolio management isn't theoretical. It's happening in pockets right now. The question is whether you'll see it coming or read about it later.
Subscribe to ADOTAT+ for the full deep-dive: Part 2 breaks down the portfolio math. Part 3 maps every veteran critique and what you'd demand before backing this shift.
Because when the infrastructure changes, the people who understand why eat first. Subscribe here

The Rabbi of ROAS
Subscribe to our premium content at ADOTAT+ to read the rest.
Become a paying subscriber to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.
Upgrade

